INDIANAPOLIS — Over a billion dollars vanished in a matter of hours. The opening wave of 2026 NFL free agency didn’t just break the bank; it shattered the vault. General managers threw caution to the wind, handing out unprecedented guarantees to players carrying massive red flags. You could almost feel the collective gasp from front offices around the league as the terms of these deals hit the wire.
Handing out top-of-the-market money requires certainty. Yet, the contracts signed this week rely heavily on hope, unproven potential, and medical charts. We dug into the numbers to find the biggest gambles of the new league year. Here are the five deals that could haunt franchises for years to come.
The Carolina Panthers backed up the Brinks truck for Jaelan Phillips: four years, $120 million with $80 million guaranteed. The Philadelphia Eagles loved his fit after trading for him last fall, but even they balked at $30 million per year. Pass-rushers demand a premium, but Phillips brings a troubling injury history, including Achilles and knee issues. He only registered five sacks last season. His production has steadily declined since his 8.5-sack rookie campaign in 2021. Carolina is paying for a double-digit sack artist. Phillips has never produced at that level.
Indianapolis took the biggest swing of the offseason, signing Daniel Jones to a two-year, $88 million deal with $50 million guaranteed. Jones played brilliant football through the first 10 games last year, proving he belonged in the starting conversation. Then, disaster struck in Week 14. He tore his Achilles. Jones will turn 29 in May, and history tells a dark story here. When he tore his ACL with the Giants in 2023, he looked completely broken the following season. Giving a transition tag to a quarterback recovering from major leg and neck injuries was risky. Adding this kind of guaranteed money is pure madness.
The Colts weren’t done taking massive risks. They handed wide receiver Alec Pierce four years and $116 million ($80 million guaranteed). Pierce is a lethal deep threat. His 21.8 yards per catch average over the last two seasons proves he terrifies secondaries. But $29 million annually places him right next to A.J. Brown. Pierce has never cleared 1,003 yards or caught more than 47 passes in a single season. Indianapolis even traded Michael Pittman Jr. to clear the runway. They are paying Pierce to catch 100 balls. He has never shown the volume capabilities to justify that price tag.
The Washington Commanders desperately needed edge help and paid Odafe Oweh four years, $100 million ($68 million guaranteed). Oweh put up zeroes in Baltimore before a mid-season trade to the Chargers unlocked him. He exploded for 10.5 sacks in his final 13 games. The Commanders watched that late-season film and handed him the 13th-highest edge rusher contract in the league. However, his career high before 2024 was just 10 sacks in a full 17-game slate. Washington just paid elite money for a half-season anomaly.
The New England Patriots signed guard Alijah Vera-Tucker to a three-year, $42 million deal ($21 million guaranteed). When healthy, the 26-year-old mauls defensive tackles. He flashes All-Pro talent. The brutal reality? He missed 10 games in 2022 (triceps), 12 games in 2023 (Achilles), and the entire last season with another torn triceps. New England banked heavily on his 2021 and 2024 flashes. Paying $14 million a year for a guard who rarely finishes a season is a massive gamble for a rebuilding offensive line.
“You pay for the ceiling, but you get fired for the floor. Some of these deals assume guys will suddenly become players they’ve never been. That’s how you lose your job in this league.”
— Anonymous AFC Executive, Front Office
These massive contracts immediately alter the AFC and NFC playoff races. The Colts have essentially bet their entire 2026-2027 window on Daniel Jones’ Achilles and Alec Pierce’s route tree. If Jones starts the season on the PUP list, Indianapolis hands the AFC South right back to Houston. Meanwhile, Washington and Carolina desperately need their high-priced edge rushers to hit the ground running in September. If Phillips and Oweh regress to their career averages, both defenses will collapse on third downs, keeping them locked in the basement of their respective divisions.
