PITTSBURGH — Ty Simpson entered the 2026 NFL Draft cycle as a projected first-round lock, but the Alabama product is suddenly fighting for a chair before the music stops. The Raiders are heavily favored to take Heisman-winning Indiana phenom Fernando Mendoza at No. 1 overall. That leaves Simpson staring down a brutal reality: an influx of proven veteran quarterbacks is about to dry up the remaining landing spots. With his 6-foot-1, 211-pound frame drawing red flags at the Combine, Simpson’s Round 1 dreams are officially on life support.
Simpson boasts the raw talent teams crave, but his medical history gives scouts pause. He logged just one year of true starting experience, spending half of it fighting through nagging injuries. He didn’t quiet the doubters in Indianapolis, either. Checking in at just 211 pounds, executives are openly questioning his durability against NFL edge rushers. I watched him throw at the Combine, and while the zip on the ball is obvious, you could almost feel the tension in the stands as evaluators whispered about his frame.
Meanwhile, Penn State’s Drew Allar is climbing draft boards. Allar put on an absolute throwing clinic last week, proving he is fully healed from the broken ankle that ended his 2025 season. But the real threat to Simpson isn’t the rookie class. It’s the veteran market.
Teams in desperate need of a quarterback—like Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Miami—have immediate options. The Steelers are almost certainly running it back with a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers for his age-43 season. The Cardinals, led by newly minted head coach Mike LaFleur, might reunite with Malik Willis, who thrived as a backup in Green Bay under Mike’s brother, Matt. Throw wildcards like Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa into the mix, and taking a low-risk swing on a veteran makes far more sense for a GM than sinking a premium pick into an undersized rookie.
“You can’t teach his arm talent, but you can’t ignore the scale either. When a guy gets banged up in college, the NFL doesn’t suddenly get softer. We need guys who can survive a 17-game grind.”
— Anonymous AFC Area Scout
The legal tampering period officially opens on Monday, March 9 at noon ET. Once that window cracks open, the dominoes will fall rapidly. If Kyler Murray signs a team-friendly deal to take over a starting job, or if Willis lands in Arizona, Simpson’s market shrinks instantly. Franchises picking in the back half of the first round will shift their focus to premium edge rushers like Trey Hendrickson or elite offensive tackles hitting the open market.
Unless a team trades back into the late twenties specifically to grab a developmental passer, Simpson is staring at a Day 2 slide. The cold truth of the NFL is that availability is the best ability, and right now, the veterans hold all the cards.
