INDIANAPOLIS — The NFL Scouting Combine rumor mill spins faster than a 4.3 40-yard dash. For the past week, whispers echoed through the halls of Lucas Oil Stadium that Green Bay Packers quarterback Malik Willis could command a jaw-dropping $30 million per year in free agency. Today, reality checked in. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler dumped a bucket of ice water on the hype train, reporting that front offices view a $20-25 million annual salary as a much more realistic starting point.
The benchmark? Look back at Justin Fields’ two-year, $40 million deal with the New York Jets last March. Willis enters the 2026 open market with just six career starts. While he dominated in brief flashes behind Jordan Love, handing a massive bag to a developmental talent remains a massive gamble.
The Justin Fields Formula
Willis didn’t just manage games in Green Bay; he attacked defenses. You could feel the energy shift at Lambeau Field whenever his number was called. He took broken plays and turned them into highlight-reel scrambles, reminding everyone why he was a highly touted draft prospect in the first place. Over the last two seasons, he boasted a highly efficient completion rate and consistently drove the ball downfield without turning it over.
However, flash doesn’t always equal sustained franchise-quarterback money. NFL executives are understandably cautious. Fowler noted that multiple teams remain interested, but they view Fields’ 2025 contract as the ceiling rather than the floor. A bidding war could push the numbers slightly north, especially considering the 2026 cap inflation, but crossing the $30 million threshold simply does not match the market data for a player with such a limited sample size.
“The issue will be that you simply can’t run your whole offense with him. He’s not ready to handle that. So, whether he can sustain a full season will be a question. But he’s got a lot of ability and terrific character.”
— Anonymous Prominent Offensive Coach, to ESPN
The Bidding War / What’s Next
The market for Willis is already crystallizing. The Miami Dolphins are reportedly “definitely in,” scrambling for stability at the quarterback position as they rebuild under a new head coach and general manager. The Arizona Cardinals are also aggressively combing the market for an immediate upgrade. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns, contrary to earlier speculation, are effectively out of the running.
Miami represents a fascinating fit. The Dolphins desperately need an athletic spark, and Willis offers the raw arm strength and leg power to execute a modern, movement-based NFL offense. If Miami and Arizona go head-to-head, Willis will secure life-changing money. Expect a two- or three-year contract that guarantees him at least $20 million annually, providing a massive raise from his rookie deal while protecting the team from long-term cap ruin.
The legal tampering period opens in just 10 days. The Packers drafted and developed Willis beautifully, flipping him from a Tennessee castoff into a premium asset. Now, he hits the open market as the ultimate high-reward lottery ticket. The numbers will roll in soon.
