ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — The 2025 All-Pro ballots are in, and while Denver Broncos tackle Garrett Bolles took home the hardware, one specific vote has Bills Mafia—and the rest of the league—doing a double-take. Despite Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen hitting the turf a career-high 40 times this season, left tackle Dion Dawkins secured two first-team votes, denying a consensus sweep.
The man behind one of those rogue ballots? FTN Fantasy’s Chief Analytics Officer Aaron Schatz. And he has the receipts to back it up.
The Analytics vs. The Eye Test
On paper, Dawkins looked like a player regressing. He surrendered seven sacks in 2025—four more than the previous year—and racked up 10 penalties. Yet, when the Associated Press tallied the slips, Dawkins sat right behind Bolles (19 votes).
Schatz didn’t shy away from the heat. Breaking down his decision, he pointed to advanced metrics that paint a different picture than the raw sack totals suggest.
“For offensive line positions, I used a combination of ESPN’s win rate stats and SIS Total Points. Plus some eye test, and word of mouth, and trusting the opinion of offensive line expert Brandon Thorn.”
— Aaron Schatz, FTN Fantasy
The data argument is heavy. Schatz noted that Dawkins ranked first among all left tackles in Sports Info Solutions (SIS) Total Points and sat pretty at No. 1 in ESPN’s pass block win rate as of mid-February. Compare that to Bolles, who ranked third in SIS Total Points and ninth in win rate, and the logic starts to track.
“The word of mouth/eye test is very strong with Bolles and with Trent Williams, and I had to leave one of them off my team,” Schatz admitted, ultimately sliding Bolles to his second team.
A Step Back or Bad Luck?
While the advanced spreadsheets love Dawkins, the standard box score tells a grimier story. Pro Football Focus (PFF) tagged Dawkins with allowing 42 quarterback pressures and 33 hurries—a significant spike from his 2024 campaign. The pre-snap penalties (seven) also killed drives before they started.
Critics argue that while Dawkins won his individual reps (hence the high win rate), the losses he did suffer were catastrophic, leading directly to Allen taking hits. It raises the classic football debate: Do you value consistency on 95% of snaps, or the 5% where the play blows up?
Schatz’s History of “Bills Bias”?
This isn’t the first time Schatz has zagged when the rest of the voters zigged regarding Buffalo. Fans will remember the 2023 MVP race, where Schatz cast the lone first-place vote for Josh Allen. That single ballot prevented Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson from becoming the NFL’s first two-time unanimous MVP.
While some see it as bias, Schatz sees it as adherence to the numbers. Whether it’s Allen’s DVOA or Dawkins’ pass-block win rate, he trusts the algorithm over the narrative.
Silver Linings for Buffalo
Beyond the tackle controversy, the Bills roster still commanded respect. Ray Davis earned first-team honors as a return specialist, cementing his status as one of the league’s most dangerous weapons in his sophomore year. Meanwhile, running back James Cook snagged a second-team nod, continuing to churn out yards even when the line struggled.
