GREEN BAY — The NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis just wrapped, and the loudest name in the hallways wasn’t a blue-chip rookie. It was Malik Willis. After two years of surgical efficiency as Jordan Love’s backup, the 26-year-old is reportedly staring at a free-agent payday north of $30 million annually. But Hall of Famer Kurt Warner just threw a massive yellow flag on that projection.
Warner, whose “StudyBall” film sessions have become the gold standard for quarterback evaluation, didn’t hold back on his official X account this week. After grinding the tape on Willis’ tenure in Green Bay, the Super Bowl MVP arrived at a jarring number: 28. That is the total number of “meaningful” dropbacks Warner identified over the last two seasons once you strip away screens, quick five-yard “pick-n-stick” throws, and immediate scrambles.
The math is simple but terrifying for NFL front offices. If Willis signs a deal worth $30 million a year, a team is essentially betting its future on a highlight reel shorter than a sitcom episode. Willis was lights-out in relief of Jordan Love during the 2025 campaign, finishing with 422 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions for a staggering 145.5 passer rating. He even flashed elite dual-threat traits in a late-December loss to the Baltimore Ravens, racking up 288 passing yards and two rushing touchdowns while Love nursed a shoulder injury.
Yet, Warner’s point is clear. Can you trust a player who looked like a bust in Tennessee but played like a Pro Bowler in Matt LaFleur’s quarterback-friendly system? The league seems split. One AFC scout told us at the Combine that Willis is “the most gifted athlete on the market,” while others fear he’s a product of the Green Bay machine.
“I’ve watched Malik grow every single day. The arm talent was always there, but his processing in this building went through the roof. Someone is going to get a franchise guy, point blank.”
— Christian Watson, Packers Wide Receiver
The 2026 free-agent quarterback class is notoriously thin. With Kyler Murray’s future in Arizona uncertain and veteran stop-gaps like Derek Carr fading, Willis represents the ultimate “ceiling” play. The Green Bay Packers seem resigned to losing him, with GM Brian Gutekunst admitting the team likely can’t match the “starter money” Willis will command.
The danger for a team like the Giants or Raiders is the “Packers Tax.” We’ve seen backups leave Green Bay before with varying degrees of success. Willis has the 79% completion rate and the 6.2 yards-per-rush average to justify a look, but as Warner noted, the sample size is microscopic. If a team clears $70 million in cap space for a two-year deal, they aren’t just buying a quarterback; they’re buying the hope that those 28 plays weren’t a fluke.
