TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — 15 games. 3,567 yards. One massive identity crisis for NFL scouts. As the 2026 NFL Draft approaches, Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has become the ultimate “eye of the beholder” prospect. While some evaluators see a multi-million dollar arm, others see a backup who left the oven too early.
The divide isn’t just chatter; it’s a chasm. On one side, ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky is pounding the table for Simpson as a better scheme fit for pro offenses than even Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza. On the other, draft boards have him sliding toward the end of the first round, hampered by a resume that fits on a postcard. Simpson finished his 2025 campaign with 28 touchdowns and only five interceptions, but a late-season dip in accuracy has critics wondering if his ceiling is a mirage.
The Brock Purdy Blueprint
The Ringer’s Todd McShay threw a gallon of gasoline on the fire this week. Speaking on The Rich Eisen Show, McShay didn’t compare Simpson to a typical Bama legend. Instead, he reached for the most lucrative “Mr. Irrelevant” in history: Brock Purdy. It’s a comparison that carries heavy weight in 2026, especially after Purdy reset the market with a five-year, $265 million extension last May.
McShay points to the “processing speed” over “prototypical size.” Simpson isn’t a mountain in the pocket, but his ability to cycle through reads mirrors the surgical efficiency that turned Purdy into a San Francisco icon. For a team picking in the late 20s, the hope is that Simpson provides that same high-floor stability without the top-five price tag.
A Tale of Two Seasons
The stats tell a story of a hot start meeting a cold reality. Through the first eight weeks of 2025, Simpson was a flamethrower, averaging 276 passing yards per game. He dismantled Georgia with a three-touchdown performance that briefly made him the Heisman favorite. Then, the wheels wobbled. Over his final eight games, he tossed just 10 touchdowns and saw his sack rate climb to a concerning 5.5%.
Scouts are torn. Was the slide due to a nagging abdominal injury or did defenses simply figure out a one-year starter? While Mendoza looks like the safe bet to lead a franchise immediately, Simpson represents the ultimate high-risk, high-reward play of the 2026 cycle. He Completed 71.4% of his passes in the intermediate middle of the field, a stat that usually translates to Sunday success.
“Stylistically, profile-wise, size, understanding of the game. I think there’s a lot of… he’s the closest thing to it. And a guy who’s had a lot of success in the league as an NFL starter.”
— Todd McShay, The Ringer
What’s Next for the Crimson Tide Signal Caller
The Las Vegas Raiders and New York Jets are the names circling the drain of the Simpson rumor mill. With Klint Kubiak running the show in Vegas, the need for a timing-based passer is at an all-time high. Orlovsky insists Simpson is the “perfect marriage” for that system, even over Mendoza. If a team buys the Purdy comp, Simpson won’t just be a first-rounder; he’ll be the centerpiece of a franchise’s next decade.
Draft night in three weeks will provide the answer. Does the league value the 15-game flash or the four-year grind? In a class top-heavy with talent, Ty Simpson remains the draft’s most expensive mystery.
