INDIANAPOLIS — The combine turf is fresh, and NFL front offices are tearing through tape to evaluate 2026 NFL Draft QB accuracy. You can look at raw completion percentages all day, but those numbers lie. Once you strip away the throwaways, the spikes, and the receiver drops, a totally different picture emerges. Pro Football Focus (PFF) tracked the “aimed passes” for this year’s invitees to calculate their adjusted completion rates. The results separate the true snipers from the check-down artists. Indiana’s Heisman-winning phenom Fernando Mendoza and Vanderbilt’s gritty leader Diego Pavia just put the rest of the class on notice.
The True Marksmen of the 2026 Class
Five quarterbacks separate themselves when you look at the adjusted metrics. Carson Beck (Miami), Fernando Mendoza (Indiana), Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt), Haynes King (Georgia Tech), and Joe Fagnano (UConn) sit comfortably above the mean. They all boasted a raw completion rate over 70 percent, with the exception of Fagnano at 69.1 percent.
Three of these passers cracked the elite 80 percent adjusted threshold: King at 81.6 percent, Beck at 80.9 percent, and Pavia at 80.3 percent. They represent the cream of the crop for pure accuracy. But hitting a target five yards down the field is entirely different from threading the needle on a deep post route.
Depth Matters: The ADOT Factor
Accuracy without distance limits an offense. General managers want a quarterback who pushes the ball downfield and maintains a high completion rate. This is where Average Depth of Target (ADOT) comes into play.
King and Beck operated highly efficient, short-yardage attacks. They carved up defenses underneath. Mendoza and Pavia did it the hard way. Mendoza pushed a class-leading 9.4 ADOT among the top five most accurate passers. Pavia sat right behind him with a blistering 9.3 ADOT. They took deep shots and still hit their targets with surgical precision. Mendoza didn’t just manage the offense; he dictated the terms of engagement.
Sitting in the press box during Indiana’s national championship run, you could almost feel the tension in the air. The crowd held its breath every time Mendoza wound up for a deep ball. He consistently absorbed brutal hits to the ribs and chin, wiped the blood off his lip, and delivered strikes on the very next play. Pavia shares that exact same DNA. The former junior college transfer carried Vanderbilt to unprecedented heights through sheer will and elite ball placement.
Red Flags and Sliding Stock
On the flip side, some big names tumbled down the board. Cade Klubnik saw his adjusted numbers rise compared to his raw completion rate, but his ADOT remained below average. Garrett Nussmeier and Fagnano also struggled to push the ball deep, ranking near the bottom in passing distance.
When the passing distance increased, several prospects folded. Jalon Daniels, Taylen Green, Sawyer Robertson, and Joey Aguilar saw their accuracy dip significantly on deeper concepts. Drew Allar landed at the bottom of the barrel across all metrics, raising massive red flags for his transition to the pro game.
“You can’t just look at the stat sheet. You have to watch the film. When the pocket collapses, you find out who a guy really is. Mendoza and Pavia take the hit, step into the throw, and put it right on the numbers. That translates to Sundays.”
— Anonymous AFC North Scout
Draft Board Implications / What’s Next
The Pittsburgh Steelers are heavily favored to target a quarterback this April. General Manager Omar Khan and head coach Mike Tomlin need a signal-caller who can stretch the field without turning the ball over. Mendoza is the undisputed prize of the class, likely off the board long before Pittsburgh picks. He provides the best blend of accuracy and vertical passing ability.
Pavia is the true wild card of the combine. Currently evaluated as a Day Three prospect, his elite balance of adjusted accuracy and high ADOT demands a second look. If he lights up the throwing sessions in Indianapolis, expect a massive rise up the draft boards. Teams looking for a tough, battle-tested leader will zero in on the Vanderbilt star as the ultimate hidden gem of the 2026 draft cycle.
