INDIANAPOLIS — The roadmap to the 2026 NFL Draft is usually paved with smoke screens, but the destination for the No. 1 overall pick feels inevitable. With the NFL Combine kicking off right here in Indy next week, the league-wide consensus has hardened: Fernando Mendoza is the guy.
After leading Indiana to a historic run, Mendoza isn’t just a prospect; he’s the answer Las Vegas has been desperate for. But once the Raiders turn in that card, the draft board explodes. This isn’t the deepest quarterback class we’ve seen, which means panic buying is about to set in. Teams desperate for a signal-caller are going to reach, trade, and gamble on traits over production.
Here is how the quarterback dominoes fall in our latest 2026 projection.
“Look, we know what the narrative is. They say this class is weak. I say watch the tape. We got guys who battled in the SEC, guys who played for titles. The media talks; we play.”
— Anonymous AFC Scout, on the 2026 QB Class
1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza (QB, Indiana)
Don’t overthink it. The Raiders didn’t tank; they just needed a savior. Mendoza is the easiest projection on the board. He offers the stability Las Vegas has lacked for a decade and slides immediately into an offense that is screaming for a distributor. With Brock Bowers dominating the middle of the field and Ashton Jeanty entering his second year ready to explode, Mendoza doesn’t need to be Superman—he just needs to be the point guard. He unlocks the vertical threat this roster has wasted for two years.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Ty Simpson (QB, Alabama)
The Aaron Rodgers experiment in Pittsburgh remains a massive question mark, but the Steelers can’t afford to wait for an answer. This roster is built to win right now, yet they need insurance for the future. Ty Simpson brings the pedigree and the toolkit. He’s raw compared to Mendoza, but his arm talent is undeniable. Drafting Simpson here allows Pittsburgh to chase a ring with Rodgers (if he returns) while prepping Simpson to take the keys in 2027. It’s the perfect bridge scenario.
87. Miami Dolphins: Garrett Nussmeier (QB, LSU)
The new regime in Miami is staring down a brutal offseason. They likely miss out on the top-tier starters, so they pivot to value on Day 2. Garrett Nussmeier entered the 2025 season with first-round buzz but slid after a rocky finish. That’s Miami’s gain. He has the arm to attack downfield—a non-negotiable in this system—and can develop alongside Quinn Ewers without the pressure of starting Week 1. If he hits, this is the steal of the draft.
113. Indianapolis Colts: Sawyer Robertson (QB, Baylor)
Indy is in a weird spot. Daniel Jones is recovering from that torn Achilles, and while the Colts are likely handing him a new deal, they can’t trust his health blindly. Sawyer Robertson is the ideal developmental arm. He’s got the size and the velocity to stick in the league. He won’t be asked to save the franchise immediately, which gives him time to learn the pro game. For a fourth-round pick, the upside here is massive.
155. Arizona Cardinals: Taylen Green (QB, Arkansas)
Kyler Murray’s future in the desert feels shakier by the day. Even if he stays, his injury history demands a competent backup with a similar skill set. Enter Taylen Green. The Arkansas product is a freaky athlete who can replicate the rushing threat Murray provides. He’s not a refined passer yet, but you can’t teach 6’6″ with 4.4 speed. In the fifth round, you draft traits, and Green has them in spades.
178. New York Jets: Carson Beck (QB, Miami)
The Jets resisted the urge to reach for a QB with their first-round capital—smart move. Instead, they take a flyer on Carson Beck here. Beck’s transfer to Miami didn’t result in the Heisman campaign many predicted, but he did lead the Canes to the National Championship Game. He’s seen the big stage. In the right system, he’s a serviceable spot starter, which is exactly what New York needs in their QB room.
186. Washington Commanders: Cole Payton (QB, NDSU)
Jayden Daniels is the franchise. That’s settled. But the Commanders need a backup who doesn’t force them to change the entire playbook if Daniels misses time. Cole Payton is a stylistic clone—he has a massive arm and legitimate rushing ability. He’s a project coming out of North Dakota State, but the tools are enticing. Washington gets a high-upside QB2 who fits their identity perfectly.
205. Cleveland Browns: Cade Klubnik (QB, Clemson)
Cleveland’s QB room is crowded, but stagnant. Cade Klubnik was supposed to be a first-rounder two years ago, but regression hit hard. Still, the physical talent that made him a five-star recruit is in there somewhere. Todd Monken is the kind of offensive mind who could rehabilitate Klubnik’s mechanics and confidence. At pick 205, this is a low-risk lottery ticket.
209. Los Angeles Rams: Drew Allar (QB, Penn State)
Sean McVay reportedly liked Ty Simpson, but the Rams weren’t going to burn a first-rounder on a benchwarmer while chasing a Super Bowl. Waiting until pick 209 pays off with Drew Allar. The Penn State product looks the part—huge frame, rocket arm—but the tape was inconsistent. Sitting behind Matthew Stafford is the best thing that could happen to him. McVay gets a ball of clay to mold for practically free.
210. Baltimore Ravens: Luke Altmyer (QB, Illinois)
Lamar Jackson is the engine, but that engine has sputtered with injuries late in seasons. The Ravens need a backup who can execute the offense, not just hand the ball off. Luke Altmyer is a smart, capable passer who processes the game well. He’s not the athlete Lamar is (nobody is), but he’s a solid distributor who can keep the ship afloat if called upon.
251. Denver Broncos: Diego Pavia (QB, Vanderbilt)
Diego Pavia is the most polarizing player in this class. He doesn’t have the height. He doesn’t have the elite arm. But the kid is a baller. He willed Vanderbilt to relevance, and if there is one coach who loves a “football player,” it’s Sean Payton. Payton could use Pavia in that Taysom Hill “Swiss Army Knife” role—running wildcat, catching passes, and throwing on trick plays. It’s a match made in heaven for the final rounds.
