TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — The tape doesn’t lie, but it definitely tells two different stories. Ty Simpson, Alabama’s redshirt junior quarterback, has officially put the NFL on notice after a lone season as the starter that saw him throw for 3,567 yards and 28 touchdowns. But as April approaches, scouts are asking the $30 million question: Which version of Simpson are they getting the assassin who opened November as a fringe top-five pick, or the signal-caller whose efficiency cooled when the lights got brightest?
The Tale of Two Seasons
Simpson’s 2025 campaign was a masterclass in rhythm passing at least for the first two months. through his first eight games, the Tennessee native was surgical, tossing 20 touchdowns against a single interception. He didn’t just manage the game; he dictated terms, forcing defenses to respect the deep ball while protecting the football at an elite rate.
Then came the slide. Over the final seven games, the “sure thing” looked human. While he finished with just five interceptions on the year a sterling ratio by any metric his completion percentage dipped, and the explosive plays became sporadic. That late-season regression cooled his stock from a potential top-five lock to a likely mid-to-late first-round selection. Yet, in a league starving for QB stability, Simpson’s floor might be his biggest selling point.
“Everyone is obsessed with the rushing upside these days, and Simpson doesn’t give you that. He gave us 93 yards on the ground all year. But put on the tape from October. The kid processes. He protects the ball. In this league, if you don’t turn it over, you play for ten years. He’s not the sexy pick, but he’s the one that keeps a GM employed.” — AFC South Area Scout
The Landing Spot Roulette
With Indiana sensation Fernando Mendoza all but creating a real estate listing in Las Vegas as the presumptive No. 1 overall pick for the Raiders, the board opens up fast. The New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, and Miami Dolphins are circling the waters, desperate for a reset under center.
Simpson fits the “Day 1 Starter” mold for a team like the Jets or Browns—rosters built to win now that can’t afford a rookie learning curve filled with turnovers. He won’t outrun linebackers (just two rushing scores in 2025), but his ability to stand in the pocket and deliver strikes makes him a premium asset. For dynasty managers in Superflex leagues, Simpson is the arbitrage play of the draft: lower ceiling than the dual-threats, but a locked-in starter’s workload.
What’s Next
The Combine in Indianapolis becomes Simpson’s proving ground. He doesn’t need to run a 4.4; he needs to prove the arm talent can drive the ball into tight windows during throwing drills. If he interviews well and dissects coverages on the whiteboard, he halts the slide. If he struggles, a team might snag a bargain in the 20s. Either way, Simpson isn’t waiting around—he’s NFL-bound.
