INDIANAPOLIS — The checkbooks are opening, and the numbers are staggering. As the NFL barrels toward the start of the 2026 league year, the free agent market is shaping up to be a historic cash grab. Leading the charge? An unlikely hero with a scar on his heel and a massive projection on his ledger: Daniel Jones.
Despite a season-ending Achilles tear that cut short his 2025 campaign, the Colts quarterback is projected to command a jaw-dropping four-year, $174.39 million contract. If you think that sounds crazy, look at the tape—and the market.
The QB Market: Jones Bets on Himself (Again)
The 2026 quarterback class is thin. Extremely thin. For franchises desperate for a signal-caller with experience and upside, the cupboard is bare, leaving Jones as the premium option. Before going down, Jones wasn’t just managing games; he was dealing. Under Shane Steichen, he secured his fifth season with a 70.0+ PFF grade and had the Colts sitting pretty in EPA per play.
History is on his side, too. Remember March 2024? Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles, turned 35, and still signed a four-year, $180 million deal with Atlanta four months later. Jones is only 29. The Colts want to run it back, Jones wants to stay, and the market says he’s about to get paid like a top-tier starter.
Running Back Resurgence: Breece Hall
“Pay the man.” That’s the sentiment around Breece Hall. At 25, he’s the crown jewel of a loaded running back class that includes Kenneth Walker III and Travis Etienne Jr. But Hall stands alone.
His 83.5 PFF grade in 2025 was eighth-best in the league, and he’s projected to land a four-year, $41.56 million deal. But don’t print the jersey just yet. The New York Jets held onto him at the trade deadline for a reason.
“The Jets could’ve moved Hall at the Nov. 4 trade deadline, but they retained him for a reason: They would like to work out a long-term deal.” — Rich Cimini, ESPN
If a long-term extension stalls, expect the franchise tag (~$14.5M) to come into play. New York isn’t letting this weapon walk.
Pass Catchers: Pickens & Pitts Chase the Bag
George Pickens is about to break the bank. Entering his age-25 season, the Cowboys receiver (via trade) posted a 90.4 PFF grade against man coverage—fourth best in the NFL. He’s a contested-catch machine (22 grabs, second in the league) and is projected to sign a massive four-year, $122.42 million contract.
Dallas might flinch at the AAV, which would put Pickens in the top 10 wideouts, and opt for the franchise tag ($28M). The Cowboys love the tag—they’ve used it six times since 2018. Expect a showdown in Big D.
Meanwhile, in Atlanta, Kyle Pitts is finally looking like the unicorn we were promised. His 91.8 receiving grade from Week 13 onward was elite. A reunion with Matt Ryan in the front office could smooth the path to a four-year, $43.32 million extension, similar to the deal Jake Ferguson signed with Dallas last summer ($52M).
Trench Warfare: The Big Men Get Paid
- Rasheed Walker (OT): The Packers’ left tackle has outplayed his draft slot for three straight years. With Jordan Morgan waiting in the wings, Walker is likely hitting the open market looking for a deal in the $81 million range.
- Tyler Linderbaum (C): Elite. That’s the only word for Linderbaum, who has never dipped below a 78.0 run-blocking grade. He’s eyeing a $70.89 million deal that would reset the center market, topping Creed Humphrey’s recent extension.
- Trey Hendrickson (EDGE): The Bengals’ pass-rush specialist had a weird 2025, limited to just seven games. But when he plays, he wins (20%+ win rate). He’s looking for a short-term, high-guarantee deal—projected at two years, $50.89 million.
Playoff Implications / What’s Next
The legal tampering period is just weeks away. For teams like the Colts and Cowboys, the decisions made on Jones and Pickens will define their championship windows. If Indy balks at Jones’ price tag, they enter the draft desperate. If Dallas tags Pickens, they risk alienating their top weapon. The money is ready; now the chess match begins.
