HENDERSON, Nev. — The Las Vegas Raiders own the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft after a disastrous 3-14 campaign, and minority owner Tom Brady isn’t interested in a slow rebuild. The franchise stands at a massive fork in the road: do they draft Indiana’s Heisman-winning signal-caller Fernando Mendoza, or do they ship that golden ticket to Baltimore for two-time MVP Lamar Jackson?
The Jared Goff Comparison
NFL insider Albert Breer dropped a bombshell in his latest mailbag, shedding light on how league executives actually view Mendoza. While fans see a National Champion who just sliced through defenses at Indiana, talent evaluators are tempering the hype. Breer noted that “NFL people” see Mendoza as a “Jared Goff-level No. 1 pick.”
Mendoza has the frame and the 90.5 PFF passing grade to back up the status, but he lacks the “alien” traits of a Joe Burrow or Caleb Williams. He is a high-floor processor who won’t lose you games, but in a division with Patrick Mahomes, “safe” might not be enough. The Raiders moved a third-round pick for Geno Smith last year, and that experiment imploded with a league-high 17 interceptions over 15 starts. General Manager John Spytek knows he cannot miss again.
The Lamar Jackson Wildcard
While the draft looms, the desert is buzzing with Lamar Jackson rumors. Baltimore’s decision to fire John Harbaugh on Jan. 7 sent shockwaves through the league. Though the Ravens hired Jesse Minter to steady the ship, Jackson’s contract situation remains a flickering neon sign. He signed a $260 million deal in 2023, but with $185 million guaranteed already paid out, he is reportedly hunting for a massive extension.
The math is simple but painful. Drafting Mendoza gives the Raiders a QB on a cheap rookie deal for four years. Trading for Jackson costs the No. 1 pick and likely requires a contract north of $60 million per year. Brady and Spytek are currently hunting for a new head coach after Pete Carroll’s one-year stint ended in a pink slip, and that hire will likely dictate which path they take.
“He’s seen as a Jared Goff–level No. 1 pick. Certainly a worthy first-rounder, but not seen as at the same level as guys like Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence or Caleb Williams.” — Albert Breer, Sports Illustrated Insider
Draft Capital vs. Proven Production
If the Raiders stay put at No. 1, they get a prospect who just put up 33 passing touchdowns and a trophy case full of hardware. If they trade for Lamar, they get a proven winner in his prime. The Raiders’ roster has pieces—running back Ashton Jeanty showed flashes as a rookie—but the engine is missing. Whether Spytek chooses the polished collegiate star or the established superstar, the 2026 season will define the Brady era in Las Vegas.
