NEW YORK, Jan. 2, 2026: The NFL Coach of the Year award is usually a simple exercise in contrition. We hand the trophy to the coach who embarrassed the preseason prognosticators the most—a “sorry we were wrong” plaque for the architect of the league’s biggest surprise.
But 2025 hasn’t been a normal year.
This season has been defined by the “Turnaround Artist.” In a league messy with collapsed contenders and rising also-rans, the traditional rubric for this award has broken down. In any other cycle, Sean Payton dragging the Broncos to the AFC summit would be a lock. This year? He’s just another face in a crowded room of overachievers.
From Foxborough to Seattle, the sideline work has been exceptional. But five names have separated themselves from the pack, turning broken rosters and injury reports into legitimate Super Bowl windows.
Here is how the final ballot should shake out.
5. The Architect: Ben Johnson (Chicago Bears, 11-5)
Voters love a quarterback whisperer, and Ben Johnson has done more than whisper to Caleb Williams; he’s handed him a megaphone.
Johnson arrived in Chicago with a reputation as a scheme nerd, but he’s proven to be a culture builder. Since Week 9, the Bears’ offense ranks fourth in EPA per play—not a hot streak, but a new standard. Johnson has curbed Williams’ worst “hero ball” instincts while building a bully-ball ecosystem that amplifies his otherworldly talent.
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The Knock: The defense. Sitting 25th in success rate, Chicago is living dangerously on turnovers. Johnson is here because the offense is a juggernaut, but the defensive variance keeps him from the top spot.
4. The Rookie Stabilizer: Liam Coen (Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4)
Liam Coen walked into a minefield in Jacksonville. A rookie head coach with a raw staff full of first-timers, Coen was supposed to struggle. Instead, he’s engineered a 12-4 renaissance.
The pivotal moment came midseason. After a wobble against Houston, Coen didn’t panic or overcorrect. He simplified. He re-centered the offense around the run game and Jakobi Meyers, taking the load off Trevor Lawrence. The result? Seven straight wins and the AFC’s No. 3 seed. Coen has done the hardest thing in sports: he took a talented but broken roster and quietly fixed the glue holding it together.
3. The Gambler: Mike Macdonald (Seattle Seahawks, 13-3)
Every season has a hinge moment. for Mike Macdonald, it was handing the keys to Sam Darnold.
Moving on from Geno Smith was a risk that could have cost Macdonald his job by Halloween. Instead, the Seahawks are the NFC’s No. 1 seed. While Darnold has cooled off from his MVP-level start (slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback recently), Macdonald’s defense has remained elite. He obliterated Seattle’s preseason win total of 7.5 by nailing the three biggest decisions of the offseason: quarterback, coordinator, and identity.
2. The Resurrectionist: Mike Vrabel (New England Patriots, 13-3)
There are rebuilds, and then there is the exorcism Mike Vrabel has performed in New England.
Inheriting a team that looked destitute of talent and direction, Vrabel has the Patriots sitting as AFC East champions with the conference’s best point differential. He empowered rookie Drake Maye—now an MVP favorite—and made the savvy, ego-free move of bringing back Josh McDaniels to stabilize the offense.
Whatever “Patriot Way” dust was left has been swept out; this is a team punching wildly above its weight class. Vrabel was hired to make New England respectable. He made them contenders.
1. The Alchemist: Kyle Shanahan (San Francisco 49ers, 12-4)
The Coach of the Year award rarely goes to the favorite. You’re supposed to win with the 49ers. But expectation bias shouldn’t blind voters to the miracle Shanahan has pulled off this year.
No coach has solved more impossible problems.
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The Injuries: Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Brock Purdy, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk have all missed significant time.
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The result: A 12-4 record and the league’s 6th-ranked offense.
Shanahan has been forced to be his most adaptive self, shapeshifting the offense weekly to survive a roster held together by tape and Christian McCaffrey. The defense is surviving on “tenacity and vibes,” yet they keep winning. If the award is for the coach who did the most with the hardest hand dealt, Shanahan stands alone.
Key Takeaway: While Vrabel and Macdonald have the best narratives of exceeding expectations, Kyle Shanahan’s ability to keep a hospital ward competitive for the No. 1 seed makes this his masterclass.
